by
William Fountian
Tequila’s Next Act
Why the Agave Spirit’s Growth Story Still Has Legs in 2025 (and Where It’s Headed Next)
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Let’s talk
“Shots were the gateway. Sipping is the movement. Investment is the meta.”
The narrative around tequila flipped from spring-break shooter to premium, terroir-driven, investment-grade spirit in under a decade. After several white‑hot years, headlines about “cooling demand” and “tariff threats” have some observers asking if the party’s over. Spoiler: it’s not—it’s just maturing. Below is your upbeat, data-backed field guide to what’s really happening in tequila in 2025, why the long-term outlook remains strong, and how to ride the next wave—whether you’re a drinker, bar operator, or alternative asset investor.
Quick Stats at a Glance
• Global tequila market: ~$14–15B (2024–2025); projected $15.83B in 2025. (The Business Research Company)
• Forecast to top ~$24B by 2029 (high single to low double‑digit CAGR ~9–12%). (The Business Research Company)
• U.S. still the demand engine: January 2025 exports up ~29% YoY; 86% of shipments went to the U.S. (LinkedIn, crt.org.mx)
• Tequila/mezcal is a leading revenue growth driver in U.S. beverage alcohol; tequila gaining share across dining and drinking outlets. (NIQ)
• Premium & super‑premium tequila growth since 2003: +1,270% and +1,500%, respectively. (Forbes)
• In U.S. bars, tequila has overtaken vodka in many programs; 54% of bars said tequila outperformed all other liquors last year and 64% plan to offer more tequila. (Escoffier)
From Party Fuel to Portfolio Piece: The Macro Growth Picture
Is tequila’s growth plateauing? Global market data says the category is still expanding at a healthy clip. Industry research pegs tequila’s value at roughly $14–15 billion across 2024–2025, with a climb to about $15.83 billion this year—solid growth off an already large base. Medium‑term forecasts point toward $24+ billion by 2029, implying a high single to low double‑digit compound annual growth rate (CAGR) through the mid‑2020s. That’s not a bubble popping; that’s a category normalizing up after an historic surge. (The Business Research Company)
The multi‑year runway suggested by category forecasts, expanding global distribution, and continued trading‑up behavior position tequila as one of the more dependable long plays in premium spirits. (The Business Research Company)
When the U.S. drinks, the agave fields feel it. Fresh 2025 data from industry observers citing the Tequila Regulatory Council (CRT) shows tequila exports jumping roughly 29% year‑over‑year in January 2025, with about 86% of those liters headed to the United States. That concentration underscores how central U.S. demand remains—even as producers court Europe, Asia, and Latin America. (LinkedIn, crt.org.mx)
The industry knows that level of concentration is a double‑edged sword. Hence the push into new markets (China re‑entering top import destinations; continued growth into Europe and South America) and stepped‑up export diplomacy highlighted by CRT leadership. (LinkedIn, crt.org.mx)
Premiumization Isn’t Dead—It’s Segmenting
Premium and super‑premium tequila built the category’s modern reputation, and the long arc is jaw‑dropping: +1,270% growth in higher‑end brands and +1,500% in super‑premium since 2003. While consumers tightened belts in spots during 2024, the trade‑up trend hasn’t vanished—it’s just gotten pickier. (Forbes)
On‑premise and trade data show tequila gaining value share even as overall spirits dollars soften in some channels. Tequila stands out as one of the only major spirits categories recording positive value growth across multiple on‑premise markets, including the U.S. (NIQ)
On‑Premise Confirmation: Tequila vs. Vodka
Operator and trend reporting indicate tequila has overtaken vodka placements in many U.S. bar programs. One industry review cited that 54% of bars said tequila outperformed all other liquors last year, and 64% plan to increase tequila (and broader agave) offerings going forward. (Escoffier)
Broader on‑premise analytics from NIQ’s global tracking show tequila gaining share from other spirits and delivering positive value growth where overall spirits sales have been flat to down. Vodka remains large, but tequila is catching up fast—particularly in the U.S., Canada, and the U.K. (NIQ)
What “Premium” Means Now
Today’s guest isn’t impressed by a celebrity face alone; they’re asking about additive‑free production, slow roasting, tahona crushing, regional agave character, and barrel provenance. Trade and media coverage highlight that transparent, craft‑forward labels are grabbing mindshare alongside the majors—evidence that education is converting shot‑takers into sip‑seekers. (Forbes)
Celebrity Tequila: From Hype Cycle to Healthy Competition
Clooney lit the fuse; Jenner, The Rock, Wahlberg, McConaughey and more kept the oxygen flowing. After years of rocket‑ship growth, the celebrity sub‑segment is graduating from novelty to full‑contact marketplace. Reporting tied to industry slowdowns and tariff worries shows celebrity labels trimming hiring, tightening spend, and competing harder on quality, pricing discipline, and distribution muscle. (Ground News, Reuters)
That’s good for drinkers. More SKUs, sharper positioning, and (in some cases) more realistic pricing create room for traditional family‑owned distilleries and new craft entrants to shine. Smart bars are curating flights that mix celebrity‑backed bottles with heritage producers so guests can taste the differences—and often trade up. (Ground News, Reuters)
Tariff Talk, Stockpiles & Supply Chain Resilience
If you’ve heard rumblings about tariffs, you’re not alone. Repeated U.S. tariff threats (up to 25% or more on imports from Mexico) have producers modeling impact scenarios and, in some cases, front‑loading shipments. Reporting from Reuters details how tariff uncertainty prompted businesses to stockpile tequila, freeze expansion plans, and absorb extra storage costs—even when levies were delayed or briefly suspended. (Reuters)
Regional trade coverage out of Phoenix documents importers doubling stateside inventory “as a safety precaution” ahead of possible tariff moves—evidence of real working‑capital bets to protect supply. (Phoenix New Times)
National and international news outlets continue to track evolving U.S.–Mexico tariff policy; alcohol producers remain on watch as broader trade actions roll out in 2025. (AP News)
Where the Growth Goes Next
New Geographic Frontiers – With China back among notable import destinations and continued penetration into Europe and South America, international share of tequila sales should inch upward from heavy U.S. dependence. (LinkedIn, crt.org.mx)
Educated Sippers & Additive‑Free Demand – Consumer education plus curiosity are expanding the market for terroir‑driven, transparent production tequilas—segments that historically command premium margins. (Forbes)
Value‑Smart Premiumization – After a year of belt‑tightening, consumers will still pay up—but the juice must justify the spend. Expect price stratification and promo warfare among celebrity and large‑house brands, while connoisseurs gravitate toward authenticity stories. (Ground News)
On‑Premise Menu Real Estate – With operators reporting tequila outperformance and planning more agave placements, menu share expansion is a near‑term volume lever—especially in cocktails showcasing higher‑quality bases. (Escoffier)
Signals to Watch (Investor & Trade Cheat Sheet)
Inventory / Agave Pricing: Oversupply chatter (“tequila lake”) can spook investors but may also reset raw material costs—watch agave spot vs. premium shelf pricing and producer margin commentary in tariff coverage. (Reuters)
Tariff Timelines: Policy swings can whip up market anxiety. Track U.S.–Mexico trade updates; even delayed or suspended levies have already imposed costs via emergency production runs and stored inventory. (Reuters, Phoenix New Times)
Premium Trade‑Down or Re‑Up: Watch how consumers respond to discounting from celebrity and conglomerate labels under tariff and cost pressure; sustained promo activity could temporarily compress category value but also recruit new drinkers who later trade back up. (Ground News)
How to Participate in Tequila’s Growth (Choose Your Lane)
For Enthusiasts: Build a 3‑bottle flight—one celebrity, one heritage NOM, one additive‑free craft—and taste side‑by‑side. You’ll never go back to salt‑and‑lime shortcuts. (Ground News)
For Bars & Restaurants: Expand mid‑tier premium offerings and call them out on cocktail menus (“Made with 100% Blue Weber, slow‑roasted”). Guests are showing they’ll pay more for quality when educated and when marquee cocktails (hello, Margarita) lead the order. (Escoffier, CGA)
For Investors & Retailers: Diversify across price ladders; pair volume brands with a handful of story‑rich premium SKUs. Given global demand trajectory and U.S. dependence, stay long—but bake tariff contingencies into landed cost models. (The Business Research Company, Reuters)
Final Pour
Yes, growth has moderated from the double‑digit rocket years—but moderation at multi‑billion‑dollar scale is still powerful. With resilient exports, sticky premium demand, and a global consumer base that’s learning to sip, not shoot, tequila’s next chapter looks bright—and investable. Salud. (The Business Research Company, LinkedIn)
Want More?
BOOK A CONSULTATION
Let’s map your tequila allocation: book a 1:1 consultation and see how to start from as little as $1K.
Ready to move from curiosity to ownership? Schedule a tequila investment strategy call and get your questions answered live.
Tequila has been one of the fastest‑growing spirits categories in recent years and is poised for continued expansion in 2025… forecasts still indicate robust growth driven by consumer enthusiasm for premium agave spirits.
William Fountian
Founder
“Shots were the gateway. Sipping is the movement. Investment is the meta.”
The narrative around tequila flipped from spring-break shooter to premium, terroir-driven, investment-grade spirit in under a decade. After several white‑hot years, headlines about “cooling demand” and “tariff threats” have some observers asking if the party’s over. Spoiler: it’s not—it’s just maturing. Below is your upbeat, data-backed field guide to what’s really happening in tequila in 2025, why the long-term outlook remains strong, and how to ride the next wave—whether you’re a drinker, bar operator, or alternative asset investor.
Quick Stats at a Glance
• Global tequila market: ~$14–15B (2024–2025); projected $15.83B in 2025. (The Business Research Company)
• Forecast to top ~$24B by 2029 (high single to low double‑digit CAGR ~9–12%). (The Business Research Company)
• U.S. still the demand engine: January 2025 exports up ~29% YoY; 86% of shipments went to the U.S. (LinkedIn, crt.org.mx)
• Tequila/mezcal is a leading revenue growth driver in U.S. beverage alcohol; tequila gaining share across dining and drinking outlets. (NIQ)
• Premium & super‑premium tequila growth since 2003: +1,270% and +1,500%, respectively. (Forbes)
• In U.S. bars, tequila has overtaken vodka in many programs; 54% of bars said tequila outperformed all other liquors last year and 64% plan to offer more tequila. (Escoffier)
From Party Fuel to Portfolio Piece: The Macro Growth Picture
Is tequila’s growth plateauing? Global market data says the category is still expanding at a healthy clip. Industry research pegs tequila’s value at roughly $14–15 billion across 2024–2025, with a climb to about $15.83 billion this year—solid growth off an already large base. Medium‑term forecasts point toward $24+ billion by 2029, implying a high single to low double‑digit compound annual growth rate (CAGR) through the mid‑2020s. That’s not a bubble popping; that’s a category normalizing up after an historic surge. (The Business Research Company)
The multi‑year runway suggested by category forecasts, expanding global distribution, and continued trading‑up behavior position tequila as one of the more dependable long plays in premium spirits. (The Business Research Company)
When the U.S. drinks, the agave fields feel it. Fresh 2025 data from industry observers citing the Tequila Regulatory Council (CRT) shows tequila exports jumping roughly 29% year‑over‑year in January 2025, with about 86% of those liters headed to the United States. That concentration underscores how central U.S. demand remains—even as producers court Europe, Asia, and Latin America. (LinkedIn, crt.org.mx)
The industry knows that level of concentration is a double‑edged sword. Hence the push into new markets (China re‑entering top import destinations; continued growth into Europe and South America) and stepped‑up export diplomacy highlighted by CRT leadership. (LinkedIn, crt.org.mx)
Premiumization Isn’t Dead—It’s Segmenting
Premium and super‑premium tequila built the category’s modern reputation, and the long arc is jaw‑dropping: +1,270% growth in higher‑end brands and +1,500% in super‑premium since 2003. While consumers tightened belts in spots during 2024, the trade‑up trend hasn’t vanished—it’s just gotten pickier. (Forbes)
On‑premise and trade data show tequila gaining value share even as overall spirits dollars soften in some channels. Tequila stands out as one of the only major spirits categories recording positive value growth across multiple on‑premise markets, including the U.S. (NIQ)
On‑Premise Confirmation: Tequila vs. Vodka
Operator and trend reporting indicate tequila has overtaken vodka placements in many U.S. bar programs. One industry review cited that 54% of bars said tequila outperformed all other liquors last year, and 64% plan to increase tequila (and broader agave) offerings going forward. (Escoffier)
Broader on‑premise analytics from NIQ’s global tracking show tequila gaining share from other spirits and delivering positive value growth where overall spirits sales have been flat to down. Vodka remains large, but tequila is catching up fast—particularly in the U.S., Canada, and the U.K. (NIQ)
What “Premium” Means Now
Today’s guest isn’t impressed by a celebrity face alone; they’re asking about additive‑free production, slow roasting, tahona crushing, regional agave character, and barrel provenance. Trade and media coverage highlight that transparent, craft‑forward labels are grabbing mindshare alongside the majors—evidence that education is converting shot‑takers into sip‑seekers. (Forbes)
Celebrity Tequila: From Hype Cycle to Healthy Competition
Clooney lit the fuse; Jenner, The Rock, Wahlberg, McConaughey and more kept the oxygen flowing. After years of rocket‑ship growth, the celebrity sub‑segment is graduating from novelty to full‑contact marketplace. Reporting tied to industry slowdowns and tariff worries shows celebrity labels trimming hiring, tightening spend, and competing harder on quality, pricing discipline, and distribution muscle. (Ground News, Reuters)
That’s good for drinkers. More SKUs, sharper positioning, and (in some cases) more realistic pricing create room for traditional family‑owned distilleries and new craft entrants to shine. Smart bars are curating flights that mix celebrity‑backed bottles with heritage producers so guests can taste the differences—and often trade up. (Ground News, Reuters)
Tariff Talk, Stockpiles & Supply Chain Resilience
If you’ve heard rumblings about tariffs, you’re not alone. Repeated U.S. tariff threats (up to 25% or more on imports from Mexico) have producers modeling impact scenarios and, in some cases, front‑loading shipments. Reporting from Reuters details how tariff uncertainty prompted businesses to stockpile tequila, freeze expansion plans, and absorb extra storage costs—even when levies were delayed or briefly suspended. (Reuters)
Regional trade coverage out of Phoenix documents importers doubling stateside inventory “as a safety precaution” ahead of possible tariff moves—evidence of real working‑capital bets to protect supply. (Phoenix New Times)
National and international news outlets continue to track evolving U.S.–Mexico tariff policy; alcohol producers remain on watch as broader trade actions roll out in 2025. (AP News)
Where the Growth Goes Next
New Geographic Frontiers – With China back among notable import destinations and continued penetration into Europe and South America, international share of tequila sales should inch upward from heavy U.S. dependence. (LinkedIn, crt.org.mx)
Educated Sippers & Additive‑Free Demand – Consumer education plus curiosity are expanding the market for terroir‑driven, transparent production tequilas—segments that historically command premium margins. (Forbes)
Value‑Smart Premiumization – After a year of belt‑tightening, consumers will still pay up—but the juice must justify the spend. Expect price stratification and promo warfare among celebrity and large‑house brands, while connoisseurs gravitate toward authenticity stories. (Ground News)
On‑Premise Menu Real Estate – With operators reporting tequila outperformance and planning more agave placements, menu share expansion is a near‑term volume lever—especially in cocktails showcasing higher‑quality bases. (Escoffier)
Signals to Watch (Investor & Trade Cheat Sheet)
Inventory / Agave Pricing: Oversupply chatter (“tequila lake”) can spook investors but may also reset raw material costs—watch agave spot vs. premium shelf pricing and producer margin commentary in tariff coverage. (Reuters)
Tariff Timelines: Policy swings can whip up market anxiety. Track U.S.–Mexico trade updates; even delayed or suspended levies have already imposed costs via emergency production runs and stored inventory. (Reuters, Phoenix New Times)
Premium Trade‑Down or Re‑Up: Watch how consumers respond to discounting from celebrity and conglomerate labels under tariff and cost pressure; sustained promo activity could temporarily compress category value but also recruit new drinkers who later trade back up. (Ground News)
How to Participate in Tequila’s Growth (Choose Your Lane)
For Enthusiasts: Build a 3‑bottle flight—one celebrity, one heritage NOM, one additive‑free craft—and taste side‑by‑side. You’ll never go back to salt‑and‑lime shortcuts. (Ground News)
For Bars & Restaurants: Expand mid‑tier premium offerings and call them out on cocktail menus (“Made with 100% Blue Weber, slow‑roasted”). Guests are showing they’ll pay more for quality when educated and when marquee cocktails (hello, Margarita) lead the order. (Escoffier, CGA)
For Investors & Retailers: Diversify across price ladders; pair volume brands with a handful of story‑rich premium SKUs. Given global demand trajectory and U.S. dependence, stay long—but bake tariff contingencies into landed cost models. (The Business Research Company, Reuters)
Final Pour
Yes, growth has moderated from the double‑digit rocket years—but moderation at multi‑billion‑dollar scale is still powerful. With resilient exports, sticky premium demand, and a global consumer base that’s learning to sip, not shoot, tequila’s next chapter looks bright—and investable. Salud. (The Business Research Company, LinkedIn)
Want More?
BOOK A CONSULTATION
Let’s map your tequila allocation: book a 1:1 consultation and see how to start from as little as $1K.
Ready to move from curiosity to ownership? Schedule a tequila investment strategy call and get your questions answered live.
Tequila has been one of the fastest‑growing spirits categories in recent years and is poised for continued expansion in 2025… forecasts still indicate robust growth driven by consumer enthusiasm for premium agave spirits.
William Fountian
Founder